UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, DAVIS

This project aims to improve our understanding of the mechanisms that lead to pro-cyclical mortality. Specifically, we are investigating the relationship between state-level unemployment rates (as proxies for the state of the economy) and mortality rates (as well as other indicators of health). Because initial findings suggest that virtually all of the cyclical responsiveness of death rates occurs among the elderly, this project focuses primarily on elderly populations, and investigates mechanisms that would primarily affect the elderly. We will investigate these mechanisms by 1) estimating detailed mortality-unemployment rate correlations by age and cause of death, 2) estimating the effect of own group vs aggregate unemployment on group mortality, and 3) looking at cyclical changes in the quality and quantity of health care. In addition, we will investigate the possibility that non-random migration plays a role in the connection between mortality and the business cycle, either by inducing mis-measurement of population denominators, or by generating compositional changes in the health distribution of states. Because our preliminary analyses suggest that most of the pro-cyclical relationship is driven by deaths among the elderly, we will focus much of our investigation on understanding the cyclical nature of health care choices among the elderly (for example choosing to live at home vs. choosing nursing home care).

Clarification of Codes