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TAS::80 0125::TAS CLIN 001, AMERICAN RECOVERY AND REINVESTMENT ACT (ARRA), DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEXITY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TOOLS FOR NEXTGEN AIRSPACE RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS. THE NEXTGEN AIRSPACE PROJECT, UNDER THE AIRSPACE SYSTEMS PROGRAM (ASP), DIRECTLY ADDRESSES THE FUNDAMENTAL AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT (ATM) RESEARCH NEEDS FOR NEXTGEN BY DEVELOPING REVOLUTIONARY CONCEPTS, CAPABILITIES, AND TECHNOLOGIES THAT WILL ENABLE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN THE CAPACITY, EFFICIENCY AND FLEXIBILITY OF THE NATIONAL AIRSPACE SYSTEM (NAS). NEXTGEN CONCEPTS AND TECHNOLOGIES ARE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING LEVELS OF AUTOMATION. TO ENSURE SYSTEM SAFETY WITHOUT COMPROMISING ITS EFFICIENCY CALLS FOR A CAREFUL BALANCE BETWEEN AUTOMATED AND HUMAN, DISTRIBUTED AND CENTRALIZED CONTROLS. IN EXTREMELY COMPLEX SYSTEMS, EXEMPLIFIED BY NEXTGEN, SAFETY CANNOT BE GUARANTEED BASED STRICTLY ON HEURISTIC TESTS AND SIMULATIONS. SYSTEM SAFETY DEMANDS RIGOROUSLY ANALYZABLE, PROVABLY OPERATIONAL TOOLS, WITH QUANTIFIED UNCERTAINTIES AND RISKS. MOREOVER, SYSTEM SAFETY DEMANDS A PRIORI WARNINGS OF POTENTIALLY APPROACHING EMERGENT EVENTS. FOR INSTANCE, TO ENSURE SAFETY, ANY POTENTIAL CONFLICT FOR A GIVEN TRAFFIC LOAD IN A VOLUME OF AIRSPACE MUST BE PROVABLY RESOLVABLE BY CONFLICT DETECTION AND RESOLUTION TECHNOLOGIES AND ALGORITHMS. AT PRESENT, THE EXPERIENCE OF HUMAN-BASED CONTROL SYSTEMS PLACES A LIMIT ON THE CAPACITY OF TRAFFIC MANAGEABLE IN A VOLUME OF AIRSPACE, AND MAY PLACE A LIMIT ON THE EFFICIENCY OF TRAFFIC. ADDED AUTOMATION WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE VOLUME AND IMPROVE EFFICIENCY, BUT SAFETY MUST BE ASSURED. IN PARTICULAR, CONTROL ALGORITHMS MUST HAVE TECHNIQUES FOR A PRIORI WARNINGS OF APPROACHING AIRSPACE SATURATION. NASA LANGLEY RESEARCH CENTER CONDUCTS A WIDE RANGE OF RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, AND SYSTEMS ANALYSIS EFFORTS IN SUPPORT OF ASP, AIMED AT ENABLING DEEPER, QUANTIFIED ASSESSMENTS OF SAFETY ISSUES AND RISKS FOR NOVEL NEXTGEN CONCEPTS AND TECHNOLOGIES, IN THE FACE OF INCREASED COMPLEXITY. THE CORE SUPPORTING OBJECTIVES INCLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THOROUGH UNDERSTANDING OF INTERACTIONS IN AIRSPACE OPERATIONS THAT AFFECT SAFETY, SUCH AS THE COMMUNICATION, NAVIGATION, AND SURVEILLANCE (CNS) DEGRADATION AND OFF-NOMINAL CONDITIONS; UNDERSTANDING OF THE CONDITIONS UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSITION FROM MAINTAINING HIGH CAPACITY TO MAINTAINING SAFETY DUE TO DEGRADATION AND SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS; IDENTIFYING THE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS THAT COULD OCCUR IN THE FUTURE SYSTEM AND OPERATIONS, WHERE IT IS CRITICAL TO ADD SAFETY LAYERS/NETS TO INCREASE REDUNDANCY AND SAFETY OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM; DEVELOPING RIGOROUS TECHNIQUES FOR QUANTIFYING AND PROPAGATING UNCERTAINTY WHILE EVALUATING SAFETY AND RISK FACTORS IN FUTURE AIRSPACE OPERATIONS; DEVELOPING METHODS FOR IDENTIFYING PHASE TRANSITIONS FROM SAFE CAPACITY TO NEARLY FULL AIRSPACE TO FULL AIRSPACE. THE WORK DEFINED IN THIS STATEMENT OF WORK (SOW) REPRESENTS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AIMED AT ADDRESSING THE NEED FOR QUANTIFIABLE RIGOR IN SYSTEM SAFETY ASSESSMENT FOR NEW CONCEPTS IN THE PRESENCE OF INHERENT COMPLEXITIES, AS WELL AS TO INFORM ROBUST DESIGN OF NOVEL SYSTEMS. SPECIFICALLY, THE EFFORT WILL DELIVER AN INITIAL SOFTWARE TOOLBOX FOR INTRODUCING AGENCY AS A METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYZING AND MANAGING THE COMPLEXITY OF AIRSPACE STATES, WHILE MAINTAINING OR INCREASING SYSTEM SAFETY. THE INITIAL TOOLBOX WILL BE EXERCISED ON ICONIC SCENARIOS OF AIRSPACE, AIRCRAFT, AIRPORTS, AND OPERATOR BUSINESS CASES IN THE APPLICATION OF FOUR INNOVATIVE AND INTERCONNECTED DISCIPLINES: AGENT-BASED MODELING AND COMPUTATION, GAME THEORY, TRAFFIC PHYSICS, AND THE RELATED SCIENCE OF PHASE TRANSITIONS. THE RESULTANT AUTOMATION TOOLS WILL OFFER A NEW APPROACH TO INTEGRATING THE INCREASING AUTONOMY OF AIRCRAFT WITH THE CHANGING ROLES OF PILOTS, CONTROLLERS, AND DISPATCHERS. AGENT-BASED MODELS (ABMS) ARE COMPUTATIONAL TECHNIQUES AND SOFTWARE FOR UNDERSTANDING, ANALYZING, AND ENGINEERING COMPLEX SYSTEMS COMPOSED OF LARGE